Document (#41313)

Author
Seefried, E.
Title
¬Die Gestaltbarkeit der Zukunft und ihre Grenzen : zur Geschichte der Zukunftsforschung
Source
Zeitschrift für Zukunftsforschung. 4 (2015) H.1, S.5-31
Year
2015
Abstract
Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet die Geschichte der Zukunftsforschung in der Bundesrepublik und in den westlichen Industriegesellschaften vom 19. Jahrhundert bis in die Gegenwart. Er charakterisiert die Vorläufer der modernen Zukunftsforschung am Beginn der europäischen "Hochmoderne" um 1900, stellt aber die Formierungs- und Transformationsphase der 1950er- bis frühen 1980er-Jahre in den Mittelpunkt. Zentrale Faktoren für die Konzeptionierung einer Meta-Disziplin Zukunftsforschung waren der Systemwettlauf des Kalten Krieges, welcher der Entwicklung von Methoden der Vorausschau und Planung Dynamik verlieh, und ein teilweise frappantes wissenschaftliches Vertrauen in diese neuen methodisch-theoretischen Zugänge und Techniken der Vorausschau - insbesondere die Kybernetik -, welche die Zukunft prognostizierbar und damit plan- und steuerbar zu machen schienen. Den Kontext bildeten eine gesellschaftliche Aufbruchstimmung und eine hohe politische Technik- und Planungsaffinität der 1960er-Jahre, welche das Verständnis der Zukunftsforschung bestärkten, dass der Mensch aus der Fülle der möglichen Zukünfte wählen und so die Zukunft geradezu frei gestalten könne. Dieses überzogene Machbarkeitsdenken betraf insbesondere die bundesdeutsche Zukunftsforschung. In den 1970er-Jahren wurden allerdings die Grenzen dieses Anspruchs deutlich. In der Folge pragmatisierte sich die Zukunftsforschung in methodischer Hinsicht. Nicht zuletzt trug dieser übersteigerte Machbarkeitsglaube der 1960er-Jahre dazu bei, dass die Zukunftsforschung in der Bundesrepublik lange wenig institutionalisiert war.
Content
Vgl.: http://www.zeitschrift-zukunftsforschung.de/ausgaben/2015/ausgabe-1/4264.
Theme
Vision

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