Document (#41205)

Author

Gordon, T.J.
Helmer-Hirschberg, O.

Title

Report on a long-range forecasting study

Imprint

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Cooperation

Year

1964

Pages

xi, 65 S

Series

RAND paper; P-2982

Abstract

Description of an experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a time period as far as 50 years into the future. The Delphi technique is used in soliciting the opinions of experts in six areas: scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems. Possible objections to the approach are also discussed.

Content

Vgl.: https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P2982.html.

Theme

Vision

Similar documents (author)

1. Gordon, J.A.: Training in indexing : some recent development (1981) 5.66

   5.664006 = sum of:
     5.664006 = weight(author_txt:gordon in 6174) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
       5.664006 = fieldWeight in 6174, product of:
         1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
           1.0 = termFreq=1.0
         9.06241 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=44421)
         0.625 = fieldNorm(doc=6174)
   

2. Gordon, M.: Training for indexing : a teacher's view (1987) 5.66

   5.664006 = sum of:
     5.664006 = weight(author_txt:gordon in 6175) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
       5.664006 = fieldWeight in 6175, product of:
         1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
           1.0 = termFreq=1.0
         9.06241 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=44421)
         0.625 = fieldNorm(doc=6175)
   

3. Gordon, S.: Museums and the information superhighway (1995) 5.66

   5.664006 = sum of:
     5.664006 = weight(author_txt:gordon in 3912) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
       5.664006 = fieldWeight in 3912, product of:
         1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
           1.0 = termFreq=1.0
         9.06241 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=44421)
         0.625 = fieldNorm(doc=3912)
   

4. Gordon, A.S.: Browsing image collections with representations of common-sense activities (2001) 5.66

   5.664006 = sum of:
     5.664006 = weight(author_txt:gordon in 530) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
       5.664006 = fieldWeight in 530, product of:
         1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
           1.0 = termFreq=1.0
         9.06241 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=44421)
         0.625 = fieldNorm(doc=530)
   

5. Gordon, A.: ¬The invisibility of science publications in hebrew : a comparative database study (2012) 5.66

   5.664006 = sum of:
     5.664006 = weight(author_txt:gordon in 1079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
       5.664006 = fieldWeight in 1079, product of:
         1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
           1.0 = termFreq=1.0
         9.06241 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=44421)
         0.625 = fieldNorm(doc=1079)
   

Similar documents (content)

1. Tsai, B.-s.: Information landscaping : information mapping, charting, querying and reporting techniques for total quality knowledge management (2003) 0.11

   0.111182585 = sum of:
     0.111182585 = product of:
       0.39708066 = sum of:
         0.030300857 = weight(abstract_txt:range in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.030300857 = score(doc=2079,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.09588165 = queryWeight, product of:
               5.0563765 = idf(docFreq=768, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.31602353 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               5.0563765 = idf(docFreq=768, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
         0.036997218 = weight(abstract_txt:report in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.036997218 = score(doc=2079,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.10953298 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.0688204 = boost
               5.4043584 = idf(docFreq=542, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.3377724 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               5.4043584 = idf(docFreq=542, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
         0.041947063 = weight(abstract_txt:period in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.041947063 = score(doc=2079,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.119096756 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.1145055 = boost
               5.6353593 = idf(docFreq=430, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.35220996 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               5.6353593 = idf(docFreq=430, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
         0.042155616 = weight(abstract_txt:growth in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.042155616 = score(doc=2079,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.119491175 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.1163495 = boost
               5.6446834 = idf(docFreq=426, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.3527927 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               5.6446834 = idf(docFreq=426, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
         0.06967328 = weight(abstract_txt:experts in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.06967328 = score(doc=2079,freq=2.0), product of:
             0.13257645 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.1758866 = boost
               5.9457254 = idf(docFreq=315, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.52553284 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                 2.0 = termFreq=2.0
               5.9457254 = idf(docFreq=315, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
         0.068002224 = weight(abstract_txt:population in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.068002224 = score(doc=2079,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.16435426 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.3092505 = boost
               6.6200633 = idf(docFreq=160, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.41375396 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               6.6200633 = idf(docFreq=160, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
         0.108004436 = weight(abstract_txt:probability in 2079) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.108004436 = score(doc=2079,freq=2.0), product of:
             0.1775756 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.3608928 = boost
               6.881186 = idf(docFreq=123, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.60821664 = fieldWeight in 2079, product of:
               1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                 2.0 = termFreq=2.0
               6.881186 = idf(docFreq=123, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=2079)
       0.28 = coord(7/25)
   

2. Walsh, T.: Machines that think : the future of artificial intelligence (2018) 0.11

   0.1098687 = sum of:
     0.1098687 = product of:
       0.9155725 = sum of:
         0.074177675 = weight(abstract_txt:automation in 479) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.074177675 = score(doc=479,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.15008628 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.2511309 = boost
               6.326189 = idf(docFreq=215, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.49423352 = fieldWeight in 479, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               6.326189 = idf(docFreq=215, maxDocs=44421)
               0.078125 = fieldNorm(doc=479)
         0.06295436 = weight(abstract_txt:future in 479) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.06295436 = score(doc=479,freq=2.0), product of:
             0.13453731 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.6752075 = boost
               4.23524 = idf(docFreq=1747, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.46793234 = fieldWeight in 479, product of:
               1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                 2.0 = termFreq=2.0
               4.23524 = idf(docFreq=1747, maxDocs=44421)
               0.078125 = fieldNorm(doc=479)
         0.7784405 = weight(subject_txt:forecasting in 479) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.7784405 = score(doc=479,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.33129063 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.8588178 = boost
               9.398883 = idf(docFreq=9, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             2.3497207 = fieldWeight in 479, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               9.398883 = idf(docFreq=9, maxDocs=44421)
               0.25 = fieldNorm(doc=479)
       0.12 = coord(3/25)
   

3. Dahlberg, I.: Tendencias actuales en organizacion del conocimiento (1995) 0.07

   0.066337086 = sum of:
     0.066337086 = product of:
       0.4146068 = sum of:
         0.07340736 = weight(abstract_txt:period in 5617) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.07340736 = score(doc=5617,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.119096756 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.1145055 = boost
               5.6353593 = idf(docFreq=430, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.6163674 = fieldWeight in 5617, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               5.6353593 = idf(docFreq=430, maxDocs=44421)
               0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=5617)
         0.09207443 = weight(abstract_txt:progress in 5617) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.09207443 = score(doc=5617,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.13851587 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.2019379 = boost
               6.0774503 = idf(docFreq=276, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.66472113 = fieldWeight in 5617, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               6.0774503 = idf(docFreq=276, maxDocs=44421)
               0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=5617)
         0.14527626 = weight(abstract_txt:covering in 5617) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.14527626 = score(doc=5617,freq=2.0), product of:
             0.14900242 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.2466052 = boost
               6.3033047 = idf(docFreq=220, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.9749927 = fieldWeight in 5617, product of:
               1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                 2.0 = termFreq=2.0
               6.3033047 = idf(docFreq=220, maxDocs=44421)
               0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=5617)
         0.10384875 = weight(abstract_txt:automation in 5617) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.10384875 = score(doc=5617,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.15008628 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.2511309 = boost
               6.326189 = idf(docFreq=215, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.69192696 = fieldWeight in 5617, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               6.326189 = idf(docFreq=215, maxDocs=44421)
               0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=5617)
       0.16 = coord(4/25)
   

4. Levinson, P.: ¬The soft edge : a natural history and future of the information revolution (1997) 0.06

   0.064768106 = sum of:
     0.064768106 = product of:
       0.8096013 = sum of:
         0.031160817 = weight(abstract_txt:future in 1342) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.031160817 = score(doc=1342,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.13453731 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.6752075 = boost
               4.23524 = idf(docFreq=1747, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             0.23161468 = fieldWeight in 1342, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               4.23524 = idf(docFreq=1747, maxDocs=44421)
               0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=1342)
         0.7784405 = weight(subject_txt:forecasting in 1342) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.7784405 = score(doc=1342,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.33129063 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.8588178 = boost
               9.398883 = idf(docFreq=9, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             2.3497207 = fieldWeight in 1342, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               9.398883 = idf(docFreq=9, maxDocs=44421)
               0.25 = fieldNorm(doc=1342)
       0.08 = coord(2/25)
   

5. E-Media : The World Wide CD-ROM Web (1996) 0.06

   0.05624841 = sum of:
     0.05624841 = product of:
       0.46873677 = sum of:
         0.11099166 = weight(abstract_txt:report in 5881) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.11099166 = score(doc=5881,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.10953298 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.0688204 = boost
               5.4043584 = idf(docFreq=542, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             1.0133172 = fieldWeight in 5881, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               5.4043584 = idf(docFreq=542, maxDocs=44421)
               0.1875 = fieldNorm(doc=5881)
         0.17610143 = weight(abstract_txt:covering in 5881) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.17610143 = score(doc=5881,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.14900242 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.2466052 = boost
               6.3033047 = idf(docFreq=220, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             1.1818696 = fieldWeight in 5881, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               6.3033047 = idf(docFreq=220, maxDocs=44421)
               0.1875 = fieldNorm(doc=5881)
         0.18164368 = weight(abstract_txt:trend in 5881) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
           0.18164368 = score(doc=5881,freq=1.0), product of:
             0.1521125 = queryWeight, product of:
               1.259548 = boost
               6.3687487 = idf(docFreq=206, maxDocs=44421)
               0.018962521 = queryNorm
             1.1941404 = fieldWeight in 5881, product of:
               1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                 1.0 = termFreq=1.0
               6.3687487 = idf(docFreq=206, maxDocs=44421)
               0.1875 = fieldNorm(doc=5881)
       0.12 = coord(3/25)